Finance Seminar – Joint with SAFE
Speaker: Lubos Pastor, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business
Title: "Political Uncertainty and Risk Premia" (joint work with Pietro Veronesi)
We develop a general equilibrium model of government policy choice in which stock prices respond to political news. The model implies that political uncertainty commands a risk premium whose magnitude is larger in weaker economic conditions. Political uncertainty reduces the value of the implicit put protection that the government provides to the market. It also makes stocks more volatile and more correlated, especially when the economy is weak. We find empirical evidence consistent with these predictions.